Texas Early Vote is DONE

Nov 02, 2024

Ok, all 12 days of Early Voting in Texas are done. What were the outcomes?

8.88 million early votes cast in 2024. Comparing to 2020, where we had 9.7 million early votes cast, that is a dip of around 825k votes, where at least some of the gap will likely be made up on Election Day, November 5th.

Where did the votes come from? You know how I feel about looking at this by Tiers.

Tier 1, which on the whole voted for the Republican for President in 2020 on 39.63% of the ballots, cast 4.5 million votes
Tier 2, which was 56.88% for the Republican in 2020, cast 1.8 million votes
Tier 3, which was 43.73% for the Republican in 2020, cast 37.5k votes
No Focus, which was 72.18% for the Republican in 2020, cast 2.5 million votes

In 2020, the overall outcome for President was:

52.06% for the Republican
46.48% for the Democrat

For any Democrat to win statewide, you need lots more votes in Tier 1 and a continued blue trend, as well as a continued trend more blue in Tier 2. There are enough votes in those two places to overcome any continued red trend in No Focus.

I don’t see it in the Early Vote. It will have to come on Election Day.

Let me do a run through some of the biggest counties to show you their trends since 2000.

Harris County

1,229,926 voting early in 2024. 56% Blue in 2020.

Harris normally sees around 60% of registered voters casting a ballot. Expect 400,000 votes on Election Day.

Dallas County

659,302 voting early in 2024. 65.1% Blue in 2020.

Dallas is normally right around 60% overall turnout, so expect another 220,000 votes on Election Day.

Tarrant County

658,484 voting early in 2024. 49.3% Blue in 2020 (which was the highest total)

Tarrant is generally around 62% turnout, so should see another 157,000 or so vote on Election Day.

Bexar County

603,220 voting early in 2024. 58.2% Blue in 2020.

Normally, Bexar comes in around 56% of Registered Voters, but 2020 did bounce up to almost 65%. Let’s be conservative and say Bexar is likely to see at least 147,000 votes on Election Day.

Travis County

481,643 cast a ballot early in 2024. 71.6% Blue in 2020.

Travis County generally lands around 64% overall turnout, so expect another 111,000 votes on Election Day.

Collin County

435,403 voted early in 2024. 47% Blue in 2020.

Collin County is very much a wild card. Notice how their overall Early Vote count was pretty close to 2020, but their percent of registered voters is a lot lower. That’s because a ton of people have moved in. We will use their historic trend of around 68% overall turnout, meaning another 75,000 vote on Election Day.

Denton County

378,857 voted early in 2024. 45.1% Blue in 2020.

Can I just say ditto? Denton County looks just like Collin County. Massive growth since 2020, almost the same number of early votes, but a 10 point dip in Registered voters casting a ballot. Conservatively, I think they land at 65% (but it could land closer to 70%). If it’s 65%, that means another 53,000 votes. If it’s 70%, that means 86,000 votes.

Fort Bend County

304,517 voted Early in 2024. 54.7% Blue in 2020.

That’s three in a row. EV numbers short but close, EV % of Registered with a big gap, so that’s mean LOTS of new population. History says they land at 65% turnout, so that means another 56,000 votes on Election Day.

El Paso County

182,533 voting early in 2024. 66.8% Blue in 2020.

El Paso County votes blue, but almost never gets to 50% turnout. If we assume they get to it, which they did in 2016, they will see another 78,000 votes on Election Day.

Hidalgo County

164,430 voting early in 2024. 58% Blue in 2020.

Hidalgo County is another one that votes blue, but tends to have lower turnout overall. Let’s use their 2016 turnout as the target (51.2%), meaning they’d see another 64,000 votes on Election Day.

Wanna win a statewide race? The folks in the 10 counties above definitely need to see turnout land above historic trend, even if it’s just by a few points. That will make all the difference. The people are there. They just have to show up.

Expect lines on Election Day. Stay in line until you get to vote. It matters.

See It. Name It. Fight It.