Why The Tiers & Turnout Matter
6 Days of Texas Early Vote
When you look at the 2020 Election Outcomes, you see 4 very different outcomes and trends. Those trends drive where you want to see turnout if you want to see things either continue on path or go a different direction.
Texas has groups blue and getting bluer (Tier 1), red and getting bluer (Tier 2), blue and getting redder (Tier 3), and red and getting redder (No Focus). There are so many non-voters in the state. Outcomes could be very different if more people showed up.
For every 10 votes cast in Tier 1, the likelihood is 6 will be for a Democrat. There are 9.7 million registered voters in Tier 1, and only 5.1 million voted in 2020. Turnout goes up here, not from flips (although you will take them), but from non-voters (3.1 million in 2020) and the game changes.
For every 10 votes cast in No Focus, the likelihood is 7 will be for a Republican. There are 5.1 million registered voters in No Focus, and 2.5 million voted in 2020. Turnout goes up here (and it is through 6 days of EV), the state stays and gets even more red.
Tier 1 has the most voters, by far. If their turnout elevates above others…
Ok, onto Day 6. Just a few charts.
After 6 days of early voting, we have seen 52.8% of the 2020 Early Vote show up statewide. We are at the halfway point (6 of 12 days of Early Vote), so that’s puts us slightly ahead of that pace on votes, but remember we have 1.6 million more voters in 2024.
Tier 1 (remember, that’s who I said needed to be setting a pace) is setting the wrong pace, at just 47.6% of their 2020 Early Vote.
No Focus (remember, that’s who I said would take us more red) is out front with 59.5% of their 2020 Early Vote.
Which Tier 1 counties are meeting or beating the State wide number of 52.8%? Just two of them, Cameron and Hays.
Which Tier 2 counties are meeting the bar? All but two of them. This is the other most likely spot to find a significant number of new Blue votes (but a must riskier place to rely on, as 6 in 10 voters in 2020 were Republican).
Tier 3 doesn’t have enough voters to move any statewide outcome (but you do want to keep counties blue if possible). 3 of 10 are above 52.8%.
No Focus has 186 of 221 counties above 52.8%.
We finished early voting in 2020 with 57.22% of Registered Voters casting a ballot early. Halfway through 2024, we are at 27.5% of Registered Voters casting a ballot. That would translate to 55%, short of 2020.
Six more days of Early Vote. And then Election Day. If you want to make sure low propensity voters have short lines on Election Day, vote early. PLEASE.
See It. Name It. Fight It.
We need a study to find out what happens to voters (especially new ones) who register to vote, but don’t vote. Why do they register? What influences them to stay home?