Tarrant County’s 2026 Primary: The Trend Is Holding

Seven Days of Primary Early Voting

We’re seven days into early voting with the March 3rd primary just over a week away, and the story from day four hasn’t just held. It has deepened. Democrats continue to turn out at historic levels, the Republican electorate keeps skewing older, and the data on who exactly is showing up for Democrats gets more interesting the closer you look.

The Numbers Keep Growing

After seven days, Democrats have cast 65,376 early ballots in Tarrant County compared to 46,216 for Republicans, a D/R ratio of 1.41. For context, that ratio sat at 0.41 just two years ago. The full historical picture is striking: in every midterm cycle from 2018 through 2024, Republicans dominated early primary turnout in Tarrant County. In 2026, that’s completely flipped, and the gap is widening, not narrowing, as the early vote period continues.

Republicans Are Getting Older. Democrats Aren’t.

The age breakdown after seven days actually tells a more dramatic story than it did at day four. The Republican primary electorate has gotten younger in its senior share, down from 65.2% to 57.9% at 65+, but that’s less reassuring than it sounds, because it still means nearly six in ten GOP primary early voters are seniors. The 18-29 bracket ticked up slightly to 2%, but it remains a sliver.

The Democratic picture looks genuinely different. Voters 65 and older now make up just 32.3% of the Democratic early vote. That’s down sharply from 39.5% at day four. Meanwhile, the 45-64 bracket grew to 38.6%, the 30-44 group is at 20.1%, and voters 18-29 are now at 9%. That is a primary electorate that looks more like the future than the past. One party’s base is aging. The other’s is expanding.

Women Are Driving Democratic Turnout

This is a new data point, and, yeah. We should stop right here for a few. Let’s soak it in. In the Republican primary, the gender split is essentially even, 52.1% male, 47.5% female. In the Democratic primary, women make up 60% of early voters, with men at 38.9%. That’s not a small gap. That’s massive. Democratic turnout in Tarrant County right now is, in a meaningful way, being driven by women. Who is paying attention now?

The Crossover Story Still Doesn’t Hold Up

Same story as day four, just with more data behind it. In the Republican primary, 82.8% of voters have R-primaries-only history. In the Democratic primary, 61.1% are D-primaries-only voters. Crossover from the opposite party’s primary history sits at 3% on the Democratic side and is similarly negligible for Republicans. It’s just not happening at any meaningful scale.

What continues to grow on the Democratic side is the “General Only” and “No Voting History” buckets — now at 25.8% and 3.7% respectively. Nearly three in ten Democratic primary early voters are either brand new to primaries or brand new to voting altogether. That’s the story. Not crossover. Expansion.

This Isn’t Just a Tarrant Story

Here’s where it gets bigger. Statewide, through six days of early voting, Democrats are leading Republicans in primary turnout with a D/R ratio of 1.13 — compared to 0.55 for the full 2022 primary and 0.67 for the full 2018 primary. Democrats are currently outpacing Republicans in statewide early primary votes 596,409 to 526,806, still early in the process.

Look at the county-by-county breakdown across the top ten counties by registered voters and the scale of the shift becomes clear. Tarrant’s ratio has gone from 0.57 in 2022 to 1.66 now. Dallas jumped from 1.47 to 3.08. Harris from 0.89 to 1.62. Collin County — historically a deep red suburb — is sitting at exactly 1.00, meaning Democrats and Republicans are currently neck and neck in primary turnout there. Even Denton is up to 0.80 from 0.40 in 2022. Montgomery County is still deeply red at 0.29, but even that is nearly double its 2022 number of 0.15.

This is happening everywhere, not just in traditionally blue areas.

What It Means

Early voting ends before Election Day, and these are still primary numbers — not a general election. Enthusiasm in a primary doesn’t automatically translate to November. But the scale of what’s happening here is hard to wave away. A historic surge in Democratic primary turnout, a younger and more female electorate driving it, fueled largely by expansion rather than party-switching, and the trend playing out not just in Tarrant but across the state’s biggest counties.

Eight days until March 3rd. We’ll keep watching. I’ll do another deep dive into the numbers after Early Voting closes, so if you are reading this and you aren’t subscribed, you should change that.

PS: I’m including a link to the counts by City in Tarrant County. It’s an interesting way to look at things.

See It. Name It. Fight It.