I had hesitated writing part three, just because people want to believe things are possible. And with what the polls were showing for voter enthusiasm for November (not so good), the Groups 3 & 4 races would just be complete doom and gloom. Not to say what I’m about to run through aren’t long shots. Flipping these seats is still really outside the realm of expected outcomes. But turnout can turn trends on their heads. What happened on 7/21/24, it very likely changed enthusiasm. Enthusiasm drives turnout. With a little hope, let us continue.
Group 1 are races where the trend shows both the top of ticket and House District going blue. You can read about Group 1 here.
Group 2 are races where the trend shows top of ticket going blue, but the House District staying red (call it the Trump effect). You can read about Group 2 here.
Group 3 are races where the trend shows the top of ticket is Republican by 5 or less and the House District stays Republican by 10 or less. These are tough one’s to move, but again, turnout… But, there is only one race that fits this criteria.
House District 94
Group 4 are races where the trend shows the top of ticket is Republican by 5 or less and the House District stays Republican by 11 to 15 points. These are the longest shots, but I wanted to include them, just to help folks understand where we are.
House District 26
House District 52
House District 61
House District 65
House District 66
House District 67
House District 96
House District 97
House District 122
Let’s talk about Group 3 first!
Texas House District 94
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
Each and every election, the voters in these precincts have slid more blue. Top of tickets moving 10 points, 11 points, and trend says 8 points for 2024. In the House race, it’s moved 8 points, 12 points, and trend says 7 points for 2024.
How do you change the outcome in HD 94? In every election, the precincts where Democrats get a majority of votes see turnout around 10 points lower than in the precincts where Republicans have a majority. Change turnout in D precincts, change outcomes.
2024 Race for Texas House District 94 is Tony Tinderholt (Republican Incumbent) vs Denise Wilkerson (Democrat)
On to Group 4
Texas House District 26
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
HD26 has come a long way since 2012. From R+43, R+22, R+11, the trend itself is definitely there at the top of the ticket. The House District voting ran 11 points more R in 2016, 8 more in R in 2020.
There aren’t a ton of Dem majority precincts in HD26, but in those places, their turnout lags the rest of the district by 16 or more points each year. You want to start to turn it, that’s a place to focus.
2024 Race for Texas House District 26 is Matt Morgan (Republican) vs Daniel Lee (Democrat)
Texas House District 52
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
2024 trends to almost a dead heat for the top of the ticket, but the House District trend stays very red. This district is Round Rock / Georgetown / Leander, and the current Rep is married to Dan Patrick’s Chief of Staff. It means money would be available, but wouldn’t it also be a lot of fun to flip?
The turnout numbers in 2020 tell us that things got fairly close, but some of those who voted for the Democrat at the top of the ticket didn’t vote down ballot. Change that and then see if you can goose turnout a bit more. Now it’s a horse race.
2024 Race for Texas House District 52 is Caroline Harris Davila (Republican Incumbent) vs Jennie Birkholz (Democrat)
Texas House District 61
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
Trend has the top of ticket in HD61 landing at R+2 in 2024, with the House race landing at R+11. That’s a lot of progress since 2012 in both spaces.
2020 saw 16 of 45 precincts go majority Dem, which was a massive change. But it didn’t translate down ballot, with 4,500 people who voted Blue top of ticket didn’t vote in the House race. That has to change if you want to close gaps.
2024 Race for Texas House District 61 is Keresa Richardson (Republican) vs Tony Adams (Democrat)
Texas House District 65
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
HD65 was R+8 top of ticket in 2020, R+17 in the House race. Trend shows a 5 point jump in TOT, just a 3 point jump in the House Race. But what if the trend accelerates just a little. And the Republican nominee is very Trumpy, so there may not be the same sort of gapping we saw in 2016 and 2020.
There was a 10 point gap in the turnout in Dem majority districts vs Rep majority districts. Close that and the down ballot voting…
2024 Race for Texas House District 65 is Mitch Little (Republican) vs Detrick Deburr (Democrat)
Texas House District 66
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
The trend on HD66 is a dead heat at the top of the ticket, an eight (8) point improvement from 2020. The House seat has see slower trends, with just a four (4) point improvement to R+13.
2020 was a pretty high turnout at 76.6%. Trend pushes a little higher, but unless something significant happens, this one will be tough. It’s the same incumbent running as 2020, so the Trump effect likely stays in place, with people not voting Trump TOT, but returning to R’s down ballot.
2024 Race for Texas House District 66 is Matt Shaheen (Republican Incumbent) vs David Carstens (Democrat)
Texas House District 67
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
Lots of similarities in HD66 and HD67. So much so, I’m just going to refer you to the write-up immediately above.
With the same incumbent as the last few elections, trends would expect the same sort of gap with the top of ticket, where the overall races gets closer, but it stays Republican.
2024 Race for Texas House District 67 is Jeff Leach (Republican Incumbent) vs Makala Washington (Democrat)
Texas House District 96
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
Trends for HD96 show a race getting into single digits on the top of the ticket, but maintaining a double digit win in the Texas House race.
This is not a district with a massive Trump effect. But is is a district that saw a big drop-off voting for Democrats down ballot, nearly 4,000 short in 2020. Change that and get turnout up in Democrat majority precincts and you start to buck the trend.
2024 Race for Texas House District 96 is David Cook (Republican Incumbent) vs Ebony Turner (Democrat)
Texas House District 97
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
HD97 would love to be HD66 and HD67, as the numbers are very similar. What’s different is there isn’t an incumbent on the ballot. The Trumpy candidate didn’t win the Republican primary, so it will be interesting to see how the Trump effect impacts HD97.
Turnout is everything. Nine (9) point gap on turnout in Dem majority precincts in 2020. Trend says that closes some in 2024, but it would need to not only close but invert to make this one a nail biter.
2024 Race for Texas House District 97 is John McQueeney (Republican) vs Carlos Walker (Democrat)
Texas House District 122
Outcomes in 2012, 2016, and 2020 with Trend for 2024
Serious Trump effect in the HD122 races in 2016 and 2020, with a 13.3% gap in 16, 9.8% gap in 2020. So even though the trend shows top of ticket as R+1 in 2024, the House race is still R+13.
But look at the nearly 7,000 vote dip on the D side from top of ticket to House race in 2020. Get people voting down ballot for the same party they voted for president and you force the trend in a different direction.
2024 Race for Texas House District 122 is Mark Dorazio (Republican Incumbent) vs Kevin Geary (Democrat)
Ok, enough groups. Thank you for reading this far. What I’ve captured in these three posts are the races the core trends would have you believe are either winnable (group 1, maybe group 2) or ones that get within shouting distance (groups 3 and 4).
I know the broad goal for Texas Democrats is to flip the House. If you have limited resources and a goal in mind, keep the trends in mind and invest accordingly.
But remember, a step change on turnout upends trends. So if you don’t like what I’m putting out there, do the work and get more blue and progressive folks to the polls.
See It. Name It. Fight It.
Oh, and here are all of the races in Groups 1 - 4 as a reminder
Wow, this is required a lot of data gathering, scrubbing and analysis. I need to take some time and absorb what the data is communicating. Thanks!